Problems & Visions

TV manufacturers try to catch the Avatar momentum and open the market for 3D TVs. Fair enough. The 3D graphics was enjoyable (less so the second time I’ve seen it, but anyway) and things like football matches may be truly attractive.

But it doesn’t work.

There seem to be several causes impacting the adoption.

First, there isn’t enough content to watch. As Gizmodo pointed out, there are some movies in the pipeline (Avatar coming 2011!), but the supply will remain limited in the short term, which of course will discourage buyer and consequently producers.

Second, TV content is not significantly enhanced by 3D technology. What is the point of watching news 3D? Ok, news are not crucial, so movies. Well then, Sex and the City 2 in 3D is a killer. Again, not really, because 3D’s greatest strength is in visualizing fantasy worlds and fast movements (look at the list of modern 3D movies and search for romantic comedies). Sony realized that and turned attention to promoting 3D via gaming. “I think 3D gaming is much more compelling than 3D movies because once you’ve experienced a game in 3D you’ll want to buy a 3D TV,” said the UK sales director recently.

Third, the glasses. It will take some time and a broad range of celebrities to persuade the market they’re not ugly and that it’s time to go high-tech while watching a TV; plus they cost £60 - £100.

Fourth and perhaps most importantly, product life cycle of large TVs just began (10%+ growth between 2005 and 2007, slightly lower since then with small screen sales decreasing according to Mintel) and so people who bought their new sets are unlikely to replace plasmas with 3Ds easily. Moreover, you have to have 3D compatible player and special cables to run the screen which is complicated and costly.

So what to do to expand the market?

The gaming way is a good start to look for early adopters. People are used to play with funny-looking equipment (Guitar and DJ Heroes), so the glasses won’t be a big problem. However, following the words of Sony, people must first try it somewhere, preferably at friends’ place. But where will friends learn about it? Vicious circle. So why not considering for instance some 3D Experience Centers branded as the coolest possible places to meet for young audience? Or developing 3D learning apps that will be provided freely to schools (e.g. Amazing Journey through a Car Engine)?

Meanwhile, it is crucial to get content producers on board to prepare sufficient supply, which may involve R&D into cheapening film-making technologies. To win the early and late majorities, marketing campaigns must promote the coolness of new technology in incremental way (no mention of minimum HDMI 1.4 cables and 120Hz refresh rate!) maybe through simple cross-technology compatibility add-ons.

Still, I can’t resist a feeling that there isn’t any problem solved by the 3D TV or a vision it could offer which I see as the biggest obstacle to massive penetration.

Picture: Comet shop, Manchester Arndale